Don Ke nobi
/ 83.5.221.* / 2009-08-10 12:53
Nic się nie dzieje, wiec proponuję zapoznanie się z analizą danych z rynku pracy w Stanach przez niezależnego ekonomistę, Johna Williamsa.
July usually sees a regular pattern of planned automobile production line shutdowns to accommodate retooling for the new model year, but recent disruptions to the auto industry have changed pattern this year. Without the usual pattern of shutdowns, the government’s computers nonetheless responded by creating the usual offsetting boost in jobs, not only in the auto industry, but in supporting industries as well. The auto industry itself was alone among durable goods manufacturing industries in showing a reported, seasonally-adjusted monthly gain in July, up by 28,000 jobs.
Besides bad seasonal adjustments, Williams has problems with the so-called “birth-death” model, which “adds a fairly consistent upside bias to payroll levels each year, currently averaging 76,000 jobs per month.” The genesis of the birth-death model was after the early ’80s recession, when employment figures didn’t catch jobs being added by new small businesses. However, when a company like Taylor Bean & Whitaker stops reporting its stats, say because all employees were fired en masse, BLS assumes the company is still in business. (For how long, I’m not sure) The bottom line is that, in recessions, you’re losing more jobs from failing businesses than you’re gaining from emerging ones. Hence the upward bias of the model during recessions.